Betting The Rockets OVER 54.5 Wins Is Stealing Money

Go ahead, steal that money, and thank me later!

The Triple Threat
August 08, 2018 - 4:44 pm

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by Sen Pendergast | @seantpendergast

The NBA released its schedule on Tuesday afternoon, and while it doesn’t unveil to the fanfare of the NFL schedule release every April, the NBA’s schedule always has a few fun nuggets. Leading the way in nuggets for the Rockets’ 2018-2019 slate were the early season trip to Los Angeles for an October 20 game against LeBron and the Lakers, and a Christmas Day matchup at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Fun stuff, but I’ll be honest — more than the unveiling of the schedule, way more actually, I love the unveiling of Las Vegas’ season win total futures bets for the NBA. Now THAT is where the big boys play! Here is a tweet from my good friend R.J. Bell with those numbers:

 

Now, I ask you “Do you see what I see?” The free money? Can you SMELL it? Yeah, the Rockets season win total of 54.5. FIFTY-FOUR AND A HALF! 

To understand how much value there is in "Rockets OVER 54.5” is to understand how they arrived at the league’s best record, 65-17, last season. Unless a team is just that damn good, in order to win 65 games, a team has to have some degree of injury luck or outlier seasons from its star players. The Rockets had neither in 2017-2018. Chris Paul, James Harden, and Clint Capela all missed varying chunks of the season with injuries, and none of them had seasons, when on the floor, that they can’t replicate in 2018-2019. Oh, have I mentioned the Rockets’ record with all three on the floor was 53-7 last season, including the playoffs?

Yeah, they lost Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah Moute to free agency, but those are losses you should theoretically only REALLY feel in a playoff series against the Warriors. Against the rest of the league in the doldrums of winter? No worries. Besides, James Ennis recoups some of the loss of defense on the wing, and I’m confident Carmelo Anthony will fit in well in his new environment. One more defensive-oriented wing would help, but not necessary in order to exceed 54.5 wins.

One argument I’ve heard for the UNDER is that the Rockets will manage the regular season differently, maybe resting guys more. To that I say, I think they realize they need the number one seed in order to give themselves the best chance of slaying the Golden State beast. They’ll be balls to the wall, relatively speaking, the whole way.

So go ahead, steal that money, and thank me later! 

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